Newsletters

Late Friday evening, Canada suspended its trade negotiations with the United States and instructed its representatives to return to Ottawa. Hours later, Washington imposed 50% tariffs on a targeted basket of Canadian goods representing approximately 5% of Canada’s exports to the United States. Canada pledged to respond “dollar for dollar.” TD Economics estimates that, if the tariffs remain in place, they could subtract around half a percentage point from Canadian economic growth over the next year. That’s meaningful, but it’s not enough by itself to produce a recession or overturn the Canadian investment outlook

At the beginning of the year, we argued that 2026 would be a year of revelations in which narratives would give way to execution and theory would be tested against reality. Slightly more than halfway through the year, that framework still feels remarkably relevant. AI still commands investor attention, but discussions increasingly revolve around power generation, data centres, semiconductors, financing structures and profitability. The objective is not to forecast every turn in the road. It is to build portfolios that can navigate whatever road lies ahead. The year of revelations may describe 2026. 

Canadian banks are benefiting from one of the strongest fundamental backdrops in years, with elevated interest rates, solid capital-markets activity, stable credit conditions and the potential for renewed loan growth all working in their favour. At the same time, high valuations leave little margin for error, particularly if macroeconomic risks tied to trade uncertainty or credit quality begin to rise.

As Odysseus prepared to sail past the Sirens, he faced a problem familiar to every investor. He knew a powerful force was coming. He knew it would overwhelm reason. Most importantly, he knew that when the moment arrived, he couldn’t trust himself. So he ordered his crew to bind him to the mast. Odysseus survives because he recognizes a fundamental truth about human nature: under sufficient pressure, emotion often defeats reason.
Investors often make the same mistake. We attribute outcomes to central banks, elections, wars, inflation, algorithms or artificial intelligence. These forces matter and they are real. But the most important investment decisions rarely come from the forces themselves. They come from our responses to them.

The debate around SpaceX is not really about rockets. It’s about capital formation, investor access and whether private markets are experiencing a temporary cycle or a permanent change. For us, however, the answer is less about choosing sides and more about maintaining a disciplined investment process. That means building diversified portfolios across public and private markets, active and passive strategies and traditional and alternative investments.

The Brand New Renaissance -  The Renaissance showed how capital could reorganzie culture, power and economic life. We believe a new Renaissance is underway - one where capital is now reshaping intelligence, infrasture and energy systems. As AI moves from concept to implementation, its impact should broaden across sectors and earnings, extending market leadership beond a narrow group of early winners.

The value of a company’s stock stems in large part from its ability to compound earnings growth. That’s why we try to identify broad secular industry trends that will drive multi-year growth for the company. These thematic opportunities help us narrow our selection to a pool of growth compounders that are set to outperform the wider market.

In past Market Insights, that focused on Artificial Intelligence, we looked at the democratization of GenAI productivity and how the “data layer” cohort of software companies are well-positioned to benefit because they manage and process the data, which are the key ingredients in the process. We now turn our attention to the semiconductor supply chain.

Markets entered the current geopolitical crisis in a reasonably good mood. Of course, as war broke out across the Middle East, that optimism was tested, but even after missile strikes across the Gulf and a sharp rise in oil prices, North American equity markets are only modestly lower. The contrast between the headlines and the market behaviour could hardly be more striking. Oil and natural gas prices have moved meaningfully higher as traders reassess the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Beyond energy markets, though, the reaction has been far more restrained than the tone of the news coverage might suggest. It's safe to say the question on most investors' minds is: What's going on?

AI-driven disruption is forcing a painful re-pricing in software, exposing concentration risk and reshaping the next phase of equity leadership. The current sharp correction in software and Big Tech is exactly the kind of market “reset moment” we explored in our latest Portfolio Strategy Quarterly, “The Brand New Renaissance”. Our belief is that we are in an era where the speed of change will be exponential and compounding and that 2026 will be a critical year, when markets will forcefully re-price areas that are susceptible to the change that AI will bring.

In every direction, the investment landscape is being pulled out of the laboratory and into the real economy. Either the economy proves to be resilient and earnings will benefit, or the economy will stagnate and investors will lose their patience with hyped-up promises. Either way, the coming year will tell the story. As always, the important thing is not to predict the correct outcome, but to hold a portfolio that can withstand any outcome — one diversified by risk factor and by traditional asset class, as well as incorporating a broad spectrum of alternatives. Read on to see how we will be framing the year ahead as we utilize our Wealth Strategy Process to guide and manage portfolios in 2026

The case for diversification has never been stronger. While the U.S. has been and remains a force of innovation and economic stability, investors must be cognizant of the increased concentration risk.
By Mansi Desai, Portfolio Manager, Equities

Hedge funds, when curated right, play an important role in a multi-asset portfolio to enhance return while lowering total portfolio risk. As soon as investors add a second hedge fund strategy to their allocation, they face a choice, sometimes without being aware, as to whether they should adopt a multi-strategy or a multi-manager model. In this paper, we seek to uncover the
fundamental differences between the two approaches.

As investors and issuers of capital navigate the constantly changing headlines, how does the market look past headlines and remain resilient? In this episode, we take a deep dive into international debt capital markets. Laura O'Connor joins Susan Thompson to explore the opportunities ahead of our clients in debt capital markets. We discuss key developments impacting the global industry and address how investment grade markets have adapted to elevated volatility in the market this year. What is behind this?

The Tariff war has been reignited post July 9th. Yesterday, the Trump administration announced a 35% tariff that marks a dramatic escalation in U.S.–Canada trade tensions with potentially serious impact on prices, supply chains, and diplomatic relations. The window to negotiate exemptions or to work out a broader deal is narrow—just a few weeks before the August deadline.
It is challenging to gauge market reaction to headline risk, however, there is no doubt that the risk of increased volatility remains elevated. In environments of elevated uncertainty and volatility, we are even more focused on evaluating what we do know and avoiding an overreaction to what we don’t.

How will tariffs impact Canadian Banks? Many factors could come into play, the most important of which are breadth and duration of tariffs and actions taken by Canadian governments to soften the blow for households and businesses