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Change is hard. History shows it’s difficult to know, in the moment, which changes will reshape the world.
While the underlying economic challenges we’ve faced since the start of the year haven’t changed much, markets have performed well since their April lows. The S&P 500 surged more than 30 percent in just two months, one of the fastest rallies in recent history, and the S&P/TSX hit multiple new highs.2 This optimism wasn’t entirely misplaced: growth has proven more resilient than expected, trade tensions have eased as extreme threats are abandoned and many expect central banks to cut rates if conditions weaken.