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For lack of a more eloquent metaphor, Q2's equity markets seemed reminiscent of a proverbial duck on water—a self-satisfied calmness on the surface belying a frenetic churn underneath.
Much of the quarter remained defined by the continuation of the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict, with the promise of a peace deal floated almost daily, yet one which materialized only two weeks before the end of the quarter—and even then, only in tenuous form.
Investing is a numbers-driven world—in any given year, analysts and individuals alike spend countless hours dissecting numbers derived from all manner of sources, evaluating what they mean for the profits of a particular company or sector, or assessing what gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts, inflation data, and interest rates mean for the outlook of a particular economy.
When thinking back over the last several months, memories of the children’s games we played in kindergarten came flooding back. Perhaps it was the relative disorder the world suddenly found itself in that prompted the connection. Or maybe it was the fact that each child seemed to have their own understanding of the rules—and those rules weren't really going to impact how some played the game anyways!
2024 Year-in-Review
As we look back to the start of 2024, even the most optimistic of market bulls would likely have felt the proverbial limb bending considerably with a promise of a 20+% annual return for the S&P 500 during the year ahead.